Is Bitcoin worth investing in April 2018?
I am going to share both my experience.
And the investment advice of God.
- not only is it still worth investing in Bitcoin,
- hilariously, *God commands us to do this
- and it’s totally spiritual.
(*more on justifying this later.)
The question is
‘HOW’ do we create investment WORTH?
Disclosure:
My recommendation is made based on the fact that I am not authorised to be a financial advisor.
Rather,
I am a technology advisor who is making a recommendation based on my industry experience.
It so happens that my answers have been read by over 760,000 people on Quora, resulting in my becoming a popular underground influencer.
Defining Reasonable.
A Reasonable return is to actually get your original level of investment back,
plus a return on top of your investment.
Let’s say that achieving 10% return on top of your investment, plus getting your or Original investment back, is what you might reasonably expect.
Unreasonable return.
Unreasonable returns go both ways.
There is an unreasonable negative,
- through which you lose your value.
There is an unreasonable positive,
- through which you gain unreasonable value.
Logically,
it is unreasonable to expect to gain above market averages.
The old saying goes;
If something is too good to be true, then it probably isn’t true.
Expect for the fact that throughout history,
smart people do achieve impossibility.
Lets look at the downside first.
THE UNREASONABLE NEGATIVE:
FIAT CASH
- It would be unreasonable to lose value from your original investment, ending up with less than you invested.
- A term deposit at bank would in fact result in losses.
Here is why.
Globally, currencies are generally in valuation decline.
This means that fiat cash money buys less by the time your term deposit investment matures at a bank.
Price Inflation kills value,
because your money buys less goods and services at maturity.
CRYPTOCURRENCY
Volatility has serious short term impacts on Bitcoin as an asset class.
It is dangerous to speculate short term, unless you have incredible skills.
That’s the downside.
Lets look at the upside.
THE UNREASONABLE POSITIVE:
CRYPTOCURRENCY
HODL or HOLD strategies.
Are simple and are proving to have profitable returns.
A person who HODLs, simply buys bitcoin and holds onto it in their wallet, hoping like crazy, that there will be fiat currency devaluation and Cryptocurrency valuation growth.
While this has been working.
Will HODL still work?
The million dollar question is,
HAS THE BUBBLE BURST?
As a technologist who is heavily involved in innovating the future of industries, through hands on industry transformation projects, my view is based on the level of demand and the availability of supply, to channels and partner networks within the application of industry transformation use cases.
The underlying Blockchain technology is here to stay and will replace a large amount of the technology infrastructure that we currently have in place.
Imagine that Cryptocurrency is a plastic bubble, that has been hit by the winds of regulatory pressure and impacts of fraud and crime, with tax on bitcoin being forcibly payable, for the first time this year.
Imagine that the bitcoin proceeds of crime was all dumped into that same market at the same time, and you suddenly have a decline in buy signals, along with substantially less demand and crypto assets are liquidated to meet tax and liabilities.
It’s not hard to see how that could impact on lowering valuation.
WHY BITCOIN WILL RISE BEYOND US $20,000
My verdict?
Bitcoin will bounce back and surpass US$18,000 to reach US$25,000 by June 2019.
In part this will occur because the US petro dollar will suddenly decline in value, as US loses the petro dollar war to Russia and China.
USA is diverting attention from it’s losing battle on trade wars, by using military dominance to take fossil fuel assets by force, as they have done in Iraq and Afghanistan. Making money from destruction and reconstruction.
This is not new and was an unsustainable habit of the Roman Empire.
History repeats itself.
The real bubble to burst will be US economic dominance.
China owns over US1.3 trillion dollars in US Debt.
And is keeping this to throttle US neck.
Ahead of the Russian and Chinese economic alliance, Russia has just dumped it’s US Debt, forcing US companies to seek other sources at a time that US is gaining a bad reputation, which will mean that debt will have higher interest service levels, putting the squeeze on US margins.
All of this background serves to make the US Dollar unstable.
At the time of writing this, the US Dollar is actually going up in value.
So my predictions (which believe to be accurate), fly in the face of that reality on the ground right now.
We are however, also heading into another global financial crisis.
This is a forgone conclusion,
because in his infinite stupidity and an act of brazen short-termism,
TRUMP has removed the caveats and protections around SUB PRIME MORTGAGES and other investments, in a vain attempt to bolster the markets.
TRUMP thrives and feeds on CHAOS.
But has bitten off more than he can chew, because he overestimated his intelligence and underestimated the intelligence of Russians and Chinese.
Both cultures are much older than the American Culture, have much more wisdom and now have smarter people.
USA has experienced BRAIN DRAIN, with some of the smartest innovators becoming disenchanted with the growing sense of fascism and the reduction of human rights protections through the US constitution.
With Freedom on the line,
this will impact the value of the US Dollar.
Bitcoin will becomes a safe haven currency,
just as it did for Venezuela and South Africa.
DUE TO DEVALUATION OF US DOLLAR.
HOW TO MITIGATE RISK.
Buying and holding Bitcoin does not have the highest returns.
Lets base an investment on US$100 dollars.
As a technologist, who is genuinely experienced across the use of most of the Cryptocurrency technology platforms, I suggest as follows:
50% MINING
- 25% Bitcoin
- 25% Bitcoin
50% EXCHANGES
- 15% into BINANCE
- AltCoin Cryptocurrencies Split
- 15% into POLONIEX
- Mainstream Cryptocurrencies Split
- 1.5% each spread
- 20% into Bitcoin in WALLET
- 5% Ripple
- 5% Bitcoin
- 5% Ethereum
- 5% Litecoin
This is a very basic spread that maximises returns.
WHY DO THIS?
Strangely, the investment strategy I learned from the bible.
The story is really interesting.
In the biblical investment story below, JESUS himself teaches wisdom of investment, referring to TALENTS.
While most people naturally think that TALENTS mean, don’t bury your ABILITIES, Jesus was actually giving FINANCIAL ADVICE, as well as spiritual advice, because TALENTS were actually a name of a currency.
How much is one talent worth today?
One gram costs about $38.
At this price, a talent (33 kg) would be worth about $1.25 million.
Similarly, in February 2016, the price of silver was about $15 per troy ounce or about 50 cents per gram, so a 33 kg silver talent would be worth about $16,500.
WHAT DID JESUS SAY ABOUT INVESTMENT?
Parable of the Talents
The “Parable of the Talents”, in Matthew 25:14–30 tells of a master who was leaving his house to travel, and, before leaving, entrusted his property to his servants. According to the abilities of each man, one servant received five talents, the second servant received two talents, and the third servant received one talent. The property entrusted to the three servants was worth 8 talents, where a talent was a significant amount of money. Upon returning home, after a long absence, the master asks his three servants for an account of the talents he entrusted to them. The first and the second servants explain that they each put their talents to work, and have doubled the value of the property with which they were entrusted; each servant was rewarded:
His master said to him, ‘Well done, good and faithful servant. You have been faithful over a little; I will set you over much. Enter into the joy of your master.’
—
Matthew 25:23, New English Translation
The third servant, however, had merely hidden his talent, had buried it in the ground, and was punished by his master:
“Then the one who had received the one talent came and said, ‘Sir, I knew that you were a hard man, harvesting where you did not sow, and gathering where you did not scatter seed, so I was afraid, and I went and hid your talent in the ground. See, you have what is yours.’ But his master answered, ‘Evil and lazy servant! So you knew that I harvest where I didn’t sow and gather where I didn’t scatter? Then you should have deposited my money with the bankers, and on my return I would have received my money back with interest! Therefore take the talent from him and give it to the one who has ten. For the one who has will be given more, and he will have more than enough. But the one who does not have, even what he has will be taken from him. And throw that worthless slave into the outer darkness, where there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth.’”
—
Matthew 25:24–30, New English Translation
SUMMARY
I think that if one of the most famous leaders in history (Jesus) suggests we are being a fool if we do not take a measured risk, then who am I to question him.
Following this principle,
I invested in Ethereum Mining early on.
That mining yield has seen hundreds of percent return.
If it is good enough for God, it’s god enough for me.
GOD LUCK TO YOU!
G.J.MacLean
